California as of 2008
36,756,666 people
13,393,878 housing units
155,959 square miles
www.quickfacts.census.gov
California by 2025
Will gain between 7 and 11 million new residents.
Latinos will be the largest racial group.
The number of seniors will double.
Inland areas will grow faster than coastal areas.
www.ca2025.org
California and Global Warming
Summers will become warmer.
Demand for water will increase.
Changes in precipitation, not temperature, will have the greatest impact.
Alfalfa, cotton, and grapes will be too water-intensive to be profitable.
Rising sea level will invade irrigation fed by groundwater in many places.
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu
A Fine California Futurist
Peter Schwartz (b. 1946) is a futurist, author, and co-founder of Global Business Network, a corporate strategy firm based in San Francisco. His first book, The Art of the Long View (Doubleday 1991), is considered by many to be the seminal publication on
scenario planning.
http://en.wikipedia.org
Future Train
Projected schedule for California High-Speed Rail:
2009 public scoping meetings
2010 route options published procurement process begins
2011 federal deadline for environmental review finalize design build contracts
2012 federal deadline for construction start
2016 testing trains on tracks begins
2017 federal deadline to complete construction
2019 passenger service begins on regional segments
2020 passenger service begins between SF and Anaheim
www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov
California Transportation Policies
1967 California Air Resources Board created
1990 Low-Emission Vehicle program (LEV l) Zero Emission Vehicle mandate (ZEV)
1998 Low-Emission Vehicle program (LEV ll)
Transitional Low-Emission Vehicle program (TLEV)
Ultra Low-Emission Vehicle program (ULEV)
Super Low-Emission Vehicle program (SULEV)
Partial Zero-Emission Vehicle program (PZEV)
Advanced Technology Partial Zero-Emission Vehicles (AT-PZEV)
2002 Clean Cars Law
2006 California Global Solutions Warming Act
2009 Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
www.next10.org
Change Observer
“It turns out that it takes 30 years for a new idea to seep into the culture. Technology does not drive change. It is our collective response to the options and opportunities presented by technology that drives change.” —Paul Saffo, futurist
www.saffo.com
Booking the Future
A few books with visions for California’s future:
Mike Davis, City of Quartz: Excavating the Future in Los Angeles (Verso, 1990)
Mark Baldassare, California in the New Millennium: The Changing Social and Political Landscape (UC Press, 2000)
James Flanigan, Smile, Southern California, You’re the Center of the Universe: The Economy and People of a Global Region (Stanford, 2009)
http://library.cca.edu
Futuristas
“When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people. Those who let it happen. Those who make it happen. And those who wonder what happened.”
—John M. Richardson, Jr.
www.american.edu
Author David Meckel, FAIA, is Director of Research & Planning for the California College of the Arts (CCA) in San Francisco.
Originally published 2nd quarter 2010 in arcCA 10.2, “The Future of CA.”
